2026 Market Outlook – January 30th, 2026

Market Outlook Summary

• The S&P 500 has posted three consecutive strong years; however, concerns around valuations, concentration, and AI spending remain elevated, while exogenous noise is at a fever pitch. The bar to underweight US large-caps as the core of global equity portfolios remains extremely high and we aren’t there today, but diversification added value in 2025 and we believe it will continue to do so across geographies, currency exposures, investment styles, and market capitalization going forward.

• The S&P 500 currently trades around a 22.3x forward P/E, by most measures in the top decile of historically expensive valuations.  The top 10 companies in the index make up over 40% of the total weight, leaving investors heavily exposed to the outcomes of those few large companies.  Earnings growth momentum is expected to persist, with consensus estimates of 13% earnings growth in 2026 and 14% in 2027.  Despite full valuation levels, the quality and competitive dominance of the S&P 500’s leading companies support maintaining their central role in equity allocations.¹

• Outside of the top holdings in the S&P 500, the opportunity set is more attractive from a valuation perspective while also displaying growth characteristics.  The other 490 stocks in the S&P 500 trade at a P/E of 19.7x, while the median constituent trades at 18.8x.  The S&P Small Cap 600 and S&P Mid Cap 400 Indices trade at 15.5x and 16.6x P/E’s respectively.  International stocks trade at 16.7x continuing to trade as discounts to US counterparts.² 

• The bond market offers positive real yields across the curve as term premiums have begun to normalize, improving the forward outlook for longer-duration bonds.  At current yield levels, we believe high-quality fixed income presents a compelling total return opportunity, serving both as a reliable income source and an effective diversifier against equity market risk.

• Credit spreads remain near historical tights, reducing the margin for error and making aggressive yield-seeking less attractive, in both public and private markets.  Higher rates have increased dispersion across sectors and issuers; we believe this environment favors quality and disciplined security selection in fixed income.

• The economy is expected to grow above trend, with nominal growth in the mid-single digits and real growth of over 2% for the year.  The normal mosaic of risks for economic forecasting is present and a higher interest rate environment will continue to strain rate-sensitive areas of the economy, notably in the residential and commercial real estate sectors.³

• Entering 2026, softening labor-market conditions have shifted the Fed’s focus from inflation toward growth and employment risks, reinforcing a bias toward gradual but sustained policy easing towards a neutral rate.  At the same time, elevated public pressure from the White House for lower rates adds a political overlay to the outlook, increasing uncertainty around the timing and pace of cuts even as the Fed works to preserve its independence.

Introduction

Over the last few years, we have pushed back on the risk-off mindset that often enters investors’ psyche after strong market performance.  We proposed that the broader backdrop favors long-term investors committed to a strategy of staying invested and being opportunistic around market disruptions.  While US large cap equities delivered strong returns and International stocks performed even better, gains were not uniform across all markets and several areas have lagged over longer time frames, reinforcing the importance of diversification and rebalancing out of concentrated winners.  Even so, we continue to maintain US large caps as the core of equity portfolios, as the quality, scale, and market leadership of that group set an extremely high bar to underweight.

Looking into 2026, we remain constructive on equities over the long term but expect normal episodic volatility in equities.  We look at greater dispersion across markets and sectors as a positive and an opportunity for active managers.  Equities should continue to serve as the primary long-term growth engine, though forward returns are likely to be more muted vs. recent history and must be driven by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.   Fixed income, starting from much higher yield levels than in recent years, has re-established itself as a meaningful source of income and diversification within portfolios.

This piece is not so much intended to be a forecast for the year but an outlook on what to watch for and expect as investors as we stand today.  We’ll avoid making precise predictions about markets but will give broad guidelines of what we think investors should expect from stocks and bonds over the short term even as we continue to frame investment decision-making with a long-term time horizon in mind.

Equity Outlook

Beginning with historical context to set the base line:  the S&P 500 has shown a strong and consistent ability to compound over time, with results becoming more dependable the longer investors stay invested.  Even over shorter periods, the market has delivered positive returns far more often than negative ones.  Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in 60 of 76 calendar years, and when looking at rolling one-year periods using monthly data, returns have been positive roughly 77% of the time.⁴

Short-term results, particularly over one-year periods, can vary widely even though the average one-year return has been over 12% during the past 76 years.  A “normal” one-year outcome ranges roughly from a 5% decline to a 30% gain based on the statistical distribution of returns.  Importantly, strong years occur much more often than weak ones: 58% of one-year periods have returned more than 10%, while only 11% have declined by 10% or more.⁵ 

Similarly, gains above 20% have occurred 32% of years, compared to just 3% of years with losses greater than 20%. In other words, market returns are heavily skewed toward positive outcomes over time and investors should incorporate this into their outlooks.⁶

The takeaway is simple: history suggests investors should embed the expectation that markets are more likely to rise than fall in any given year.

As the time horizon extends to three, five, ten, or twenty years, outcomes become even more predictable.  Over 20-year periods, the S&P 500 has never produced a negative result, and even the weakest 20-year stretch delivered annual returns of around 5%.⁷  While maintaining a long-term mindset sounds easy, it can be challenging in practice because long-term investing is experienced through many short-term ups and downs that can test emotions.

In our view, the market is firmly in a bull market and in the middle innings relative to prior bull markets age and a fraction of the magnitude of returns.  We can measure bull markets from their start point at the low of a bear market.  The current bull market began at the depths of inflationary pressures and a historical Fed tightening cycle but was sparked by breakthroughs in the applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the subsequent generational capital investment cycle betting on its impact on economic prosperity and corporate profits, this particularly provided a tailwind to Technology stocks, the largest sector in the US market.

On average, bull markets in the S&P 500 have produced cumulative gains of more than 330% and have lasted roughly 7 years. At just over 3 years into the current bull market, returns have been solid but remain modest relative to historical averages.⁸  We view this as an indication that the current bull market still appears durable. 

Another useful point of reference is the technology spending cycle most often compared to today’s AI boom: the dot-com era.  That bull market delivered gains several times larger than today’s and lasted more than 12 years before ultimately ending with the bursting of a bubble.  This is not a direct comparison between the eras (there are many extremely important distinctions between the two and we prefer not to group any eras together), but the takeaway is that long technology-led bull markets can run much longer and generate far larger returns than investors expect, even when valuations rise and skepticism grows.  History suggests that transformative innovation cycles tend to unfold over many years, with periods of optimism and pessimism along the way, rather than peaking quickly after just a few strong years.

As we enter 2026, it’s valuable to remember that market volatility and pullbacks are a normal part of investing.  Years of smooth market performance are the exception rather than the rule.  Historically, the S&P 500 experiences intra-year declines of roughly -15.6% in any given calendar year since 1998, even when long-term returns remain strongly positive.  These short-term setbacks can arise for many reasons and are often unpredictable; last year, for example, markets experienced a swift -19% decline following the sudden shift in US trade policy.⁹

We often note that the market has not been given credit for its “time served,” as investors have seemingly discounted the 3 separate qualifying bear markets (- 20% declines or worse) that occurred within a roughly 5-year period between March 2020 and April 2025.  These declines tend to happen just once every 5 years but the repeated bouts of market volatility have become so familiar that, in some cases, they are treated as if they never happened.¹⁰

The key for investors is being prepared and building portfolios designed to withstand periods of uncertainty without derailing long-term goals as we often emphasize through the importance of “managing for the short term and investing for the long term.”  Revisiting the realities of volatility and drawdowns at the start of each year helps set appropriate realistic expectations and goals and reinforces the value of staying disciplined through both market advances and pullbacks.

Resetting this base line and looking toward 2026 and beyond, through a fundamental lens, the outlook remains generally constructive with the two most important aspects for investors: strong earnings supported by continued economic growth, driven by a strong consumer and AI spending and optimism.  This strength is tempered by elevated valuations, particularly in US large-caps.  An accommodative Federal Reserve responding to a cooling labor market and moderating inflation is a positive but is set against a charged political backdrop which adds to the challenging investment environment and stirs investor angst.

Net-net, we continue to view the long-term investment outlook favorably for global, diversified investors.  With a base case that includes:

• Moderate economic growth driven by business investment in AI and resiliently supported by a strong US consumer.
• Global growth with continued momentum but uneven across regions.
• Broad-based and strong corporate earnings growth in 2026 and 2027.
• Balanced monetary policy with a bias towards easing as inflation cools and the labor market shows signs of weakness. 
• The potential for renewed activity in equity capital markets (M&A and IPOs).
• Volatility surrounding trade, domestic, and foreign policy that may impact currency exchange rates.
• Range bound but volatile interest rates.
• Low and stable inflation.
• Tight corporate credit spreads.

As there are levels of uncertainty surrounding those conditions, we have a heightened awareness of the risks to this constructive outlook where a worse-than-expected scenario includes:

• Disappointment in AI-related return on investment and concerns over capital expenditures would likely result in multiple contraction, particularly in US large-cap growth stocks, as investors reassess the durability, timing, and magnitude of future earnings associated with the cycle.
• Economic growth slows as the pressure from higher rates and inflation or tighter credit eventually causes a material impact on consumer spending and/or AI-driven capital spending and productivity gains falter.
• Earnings results and future guidance disappoint.  Current estimates for double-digit earnings growth in 2026 and 2027 mean that corporations have a high hurdle to impress incrementally.  Anything less than beating these expectations is likely to be met with taking profits and selling in some of the major winners in the past 3 years.  This disproportionately affects US Large-Cap stocks given their concentration risk.
• Inflation re-accelerates or stays stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target and causes the Fed to pivot back to hawkish policy.  Trade policy involving tariffs and de-globalization continue to be catalysts for this risk.
• Rising federal deficits and the expanding debt burden of the US, combined with concerns over central bank independence, cause elevated interest rate uncertainty and volatility.
• A credit event due to the higher interest rate environment (we are particularly watchful of this in Private Credit).
• And the potential for some “black swan” event that very few see coming (this is always present).  This includes current geopolitical conflicts resurging or a new one emerging.

As in 2025, upside surprises in 2026 may be harder to come by, as high expectations are already reflected in market valuations and the constructive economic outlook.  That said, the solid earnings backdrop can still support market gains without reliance on multiple expansion, which in our view, is a healthy set-up for investors.

In 2026, the US and global economies are expected to grow.  Estimates are for above-trend Real GDP Growth in the US in 2026, forecasted at 2.4%.  The Global economy is expected to grow by over 3% with noteworthy strength in Emerging Markets.  Indicators such as the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index remain in positive territory and continue to point towards continued growth.¹¹  In the US, consumer spending represents roughly 68% of GDP and its resilience, supported by wage gains and strong household balance sheets, has been the key driver of economic stability in recent years.¹²  Despite a cooling housing market and signs of labor market softening, consumer spending is expected to remain supportive of growth. 

Another major driver of recent economic growth, and one expected to persist in 2026 and beyond, has been capital investment tied to the buildout of AI infrastructure.  Spending on data centers, semiconductors, power generation, and related systems has helped offset weakness elsewhere in the economy and supported overall business investment.  While the ultimate returns on these investments will take time to assess, AI-related capital spending remains an important contributor to near-term growth.

Jobs growth has slowed meaningfully, with monthly job gains declining and the unemployment rate gradually moving higher.  Leading labor market indicators, including job openings and payroll trends, point to continued softening.  Consumer confidence has weakened notably, reflecting concerns around employment conditions and the ability of income to keep pace with higher prices.  While these dynamics are not yet recessionary, they signal a labor market that is clearly less robust with hiring momentum continuing to cool.

In 2026, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow to $311 per share for the S&P 500 and in 2027 to $355 per share, growth rates of 13.5% and 14.3% respectively.¹³  These gains are led by the Technology sector, but earnings growth is expected to be widespread across sector, size and style of the US market in the next 2 years, a welcome sign of breadth of the market.  In our view, earnings are the single most important long-term input for markets as returns closely track their growth over time, but this simple concept is often lost in the shuffle of market noise.  In a year where markets enter at relatively stretched valuations, earnings growth allows for gains without multiple expansion. 

Earnings momentum continues to reflect a supportive economic backdrop and the ongoing AI investment cycle, led by the Technology sector, with early signs of productivity gains beginning to filter across industries and down market-cap.  While expectations are even higher today than they were a year ago, consensus earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain achievable in our view, barring a deterioration in economic conditions or a significant disappointment from the largest Technology companies.  Profits are being driven by continued revenue growth and increasingly by efficiency gains, demonstrated by consistently expanding profit margins to all-time high levels for the S&P 500. 

Looking across the past two cycles highlights how much the composition and quality of the S&P 500 has evolved.  Compared to both the post-Global Financial Crisis period and the pre-COVID expansion, today’s market is more profitable, more cash-generative, and supported by stronger balance sheets.  This progression helps explain the durability of earnings in recent years, even as valuations remain elevated.

For these reasons, US large-cap equities remain the core allocation within equity portfolios, but should be complemented by allocations to International markets and the broader equity universe.  Blending styles, smaller companies, and global regions helps improve diversification and construct more balanced, risk-adjusted portfolios.  While US large-caps represent the highest-quality segment of the global equity market, supported by durable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets, diversified revenue models, and exceptional profitability, elevated valuations and index concentration remain valid considerations and reinforce the importance of disciplined rebalancing and diversification.

Valuation for the S&P 500 sits at a 22.3x P/E based on forward earnings, reflecting the optimism around future earnings, quality and their durability, we believe this premium valuation is warranted for the index if these factors hold.  By historical standards, though, this places valuations near the high end of the range.  As is often noted, the S&P 500 is heavily influenced by a small number of very large companies, with the top ten now accounting for roughly 40% of the index.  Looking beyond the top-heavy S&P 500, we find earnings strength that is broadening out.  Compare the earnings growth of the “Magnificent  7” vs. average stock in the index and we see a declining spread over time that is projected to decline further in 2026 and 2027, meaning the contribution from the other components of the markets, both at the sector and industry level and individually, is increasing. 

We view this opportunity set outside of the S&P 500 exposure to be robust.  In the US, mid and small-cap stocks project to grow earnings in the double-digits.  Value stocks as compared to Growth stocks that have led the markets in recent memory, are also on track to grow earnings.  Abroad, the story is even more compelling.  International markets, both Developed and Emerging, are experiencing an earnings inflection.

The soft-landing backdrop and a more neutral Federal Reserve remain important for small- and mid-cap stocks, many of which are more sensitive to higher interest rates.  These segments also have greater exposure to cyclical sectors, positioning them to benefit from sustained economic growth.  Additionally, we view this cohort as major potential beneficiaries of higher productivity and labor cost savings as AI adoption moves from investment toward implementation.

The benefits of allocating a portion of the equity portfolio to International stocks are higher today, as it can act as both a diversifier to balance sector and factor exposure as a return enhancer, due to this backdrop coupled with macro tailwinds. 

We view the case for International equities centered around several strong arguments that remain in place.  International valuations continue to trade at a discount to the US, reducing the need for multiple expansion to drive returns.  At the same time, earnings growth is expected to broaden globally as economic activity stabilizes and improves across a number of regions, most notably in Emerging Markets.  Currency exchange rates are now balancing after an extended period of US dollar strength and have shifted from a headwind to a tailwind for US investors in International equities.  And lastly, International markets continue to offer differentiated sector and factor exposures that provide diversification benefits and help reduce the concentration risk that has built up in US large-cap equities.

The weaker US dollar was an important tailwind for International stock performance in 2025 and should continue to play a meaningful role in International stocks’ portfolio role going forward.  There are several factors the dollar may remain under pressure: Ongoing trade and geopolitical tensions have reduced reliance on the US dollar in global commerce, while foreign central banks have continued to diversify reserves away from the dollar.  Lower US interest rates have narrowed the yield advantage that supported the dollar in recent years.  Relatively high US equity valuations and renewed interest in International markets have encouraged capital to move abroad, supporting foreign currencies.  And finally, even after its recent pullback, the US dollar remains strong relative to its own history.

In our view, concerns about a collapse of the US dollar are vastly overstated. The dollar remains the world’s primary reserve currency with no valid alternative or replacement. However, as stated above, the underlying fundamentals supporting a normalization in foreign exchange rates are intact and supportive of International equities.

Overall, our outlook in 2026 for stocks remains constructive but more selective.  We can distill this down into 4 main themes as we think about investing in stocks going forward:

• Earnings over multiples: Returns are likely to be driven more by earnings growth supported by the economic backdrop, rather than further valuation expansion.

• Quality matters:  US stocks remain a core allocation given their durability, profitability, and balance-sheet strength.

• Broadening opportunity set:  Opportunities are expanding beyond the largest US companies across market cap, style, and geography.

• Diversification and discipline:  Outcomes will increasingly depend on global diversification, disciplined rebalancing, and a focus on quality and profitability.

Fixed Income Outlook

In the fixed income markets, a normalized yield curve and high starting point of yields reinforces owning bonds’ dual role in portfolios as income generator and equity market risk diversifier.  The US 10-year Treasury ended 2025 at 4.18%¹⁴; and after adjusting for expected inflation provides positive real yields.  We expect rates to remain somewhat volatile but mostly range-bound.  The economic outlook is constructive and inflation moderating.  However, upward pressure on yields regarding the US Federal debt burden and potential trade and geopolitical policy shifts are risks to monitor. 

Bonds had a strong 2025 as higher coupons generated income while the yield curve steepened through lower short-term rates.  The outlook for fixed income is largely dependent on the starting yield for fixed income sectors.  The beginning yield on bonds is highly predictive of forward returns.

Cash rates begin the year at around 3.6%-3.7%¹⁵ and are expected to remain near that level as the Federal Reserve maintains a steady policy stance.  At least through the first half of the year, the Fed appears inclined to remain on hold, with policy risks skewed toward easing rather than tightening as the year progresses. The back half of the year could present an opportunity for one to two rate cuts.  After experiencing a rapid move from near-zero rates to a peak of 5.5%, cash yields have now normalized at levels that are closer to neutral. 

Stepping out on the term structure, a steeper yield curve means investors can access a term premium and lock in higher rates over a longer period, improving forward-looking return potential while reducing reinvestment risk.  Cash still has portfolio merits for liquidity and stability purposes but in this environment, intermediate duration bonds offer a more compelling balance of income, diversification, and total return potential within diversified portfolios. 

Interest rate risk has fallen in recent years and is now skewed in favor of bondholders as yields have established themselves at sustainably higher levels.  At today’s yield levels, the upside from falling rates outweighs the downside from increasing rates, as shown in the chart below. We view this as a more balanced and attractive setup for bonds, where investors are being paid to wait and can benefit both from income and potential price appreciation if rates move lower.

Credit markets experienced periods of volatility in 2025 but ultimately reverted to historically tight conditions by year-end, leaving investors entering 2026 with a familiar question: how to balance incremental yield against elevated spread risk. Both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds are trading near all-time tight spreads relative to Treasuries. We continue to favor investment-grade credit over high yield in portfolio allocations for quality reasons, while recognizing that selective income and total return opportunities exist further down the credit spectrum through active security selection.

Floating-rate issues, including leveraged loans and private credit/direct lending strategies, are relatively less attractive as base rates have fallen, and recent high-profile defaults and write-downs have sharpened focus on the risks within that segment.  International bonds, particularly Emerging Markets debt, which has had a strong run of performance and benefitted from the weakening US dollar in local currency issued bonds, are also becoming tight in spread. 

Following three rate cuts in late 2025, monetary policy has shifted into a more balanced and flexible phase, with incoming economic data guiding the Fed’s next steps across its dual mandate. Should labor market conditions continue to soften, the Fed has room to implement additional cuts to support growth. If inflation instead stabilizes near current levels or reaccelerates modestly, the Fed can maintain a neutral stance; we view the likelihood of renewed rate hikes as low.

Markets will also be watching the composition of the Federal Reserve in 2026, as Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires in May.  While Powell could remain on the Board as a governor, that outcome is uncertain.  A departure would allow the Trump administration to nominate new members, which markets would likely view as more dovish and inclined toward further rate cuts.  Any threat to the independence of the Fed will likely be met with angst in the bond market leading to higher interest rates in the long-term Treasury market.

In the Fed’s December 2025 projections, the group forecasted strong growth (2.3% real GDP growth) in 2026 alongside falling inflation (2.5% Core PCE) and a stable unemployment rate (4.4%).¹⁶  The median member predicted only 1 rate cut in 2026 while the Fed Funds Futures market is pricing in 2 cuts.¹⁷      

Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is currently 2.8% as of November 2025, unchanged from the end of 2024.  The 3- and 6-month annualized rates running at 2.23% and 2.59% respectively, the near term momentum has slowed.¹⁸  The downside expected from the abnormally lagged reporting of housing inflation is impacting the inflation numbers now and may serve as an additional tailwind to lower inflation throughout 2026.  Trade and immigration policy continue to be policy risks that the Fed is monitoring as it applies to inflation.  Thus far, the impact of tariffs has been less than initially expected.

As we enter 2026, the investment backdrop remains constructive but nuanced.  Elevated equity valuations and high expectations suggest that returns are likely to be driven by earnings growth rather than further multiple expansion, reinforcing the importance of quality, diversification, and discipline. US large-cap equities remain the core of portfolios given their durability and profitability, but the opportunity set is broadening across market capitalization, styles, and geographies.  International equities, supported by improving earnings momentum, more attractive valuations, and a more balanced currency backdrop, play an increasingly important role in building resilient portfolios.

At the same time, fixed income has re-established itself as a meaningful source of income and diversification. Starting yields are higher than in the prior decade, interest-rate risk is more balanced, and bonds offer a favorable risk-reward profile within diversified portfolios.  While credit spreads remain tight and highlight the need for selectivity, high-quality fixed income provides both income and downside protection should growth slow.  

In this environment, we believe successful outcomes will come not from market timing, but from maintaining diversified portfolios, rebalancing opportunistically, and staying focused on long-term objectives through periods of volatility. We’re hopeful that this outlook provides some insight into the details we’re examining and the considerations we’re giving to portfolio management on a daily basis at Kavar Capital.  We’re looking forward to another year in the markets and thank you for your trust in our team.  Please reach out with any questions or comments!

Footnotes:

1. Bloomberg Market Data
2. Bloomberg Market Data
3. Bloomberg Market Data
4. Morningstar Direct Data
5. Morningstar Direct Data
6. Morningstar Direct Data
7. Morningstar Direct Data
8. Morningstar Direct Data
9. Morningstar Direct Data
10. Morningstar Direct Data
11. Bloomberg Market Data
12. JPMorgan Guide to the Markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/daily/protected/mi-daily-gtm-us.pdf?countryCode=us&languageCode=en&roleCode=adv
13. Bloomberg Market Data
14. US Treasury https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
15. US Treasury https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
16. Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20251210.htm
17. CME Group FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
18. St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE

The views expressed herein are those of John Nagle on January 30^th, 2026 and are subject to change at any time based on market or other conditions, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. This market commentary is a publication of Kavar Capital Partners (KCP) and is provided as a service to clients and friends of KCP solely for their own use and information. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product, and should not be construed as investment, legal or tax advice. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a client’s investment portfolio. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss and past performance does not ensure future results. Asset allocation and diversification do not ensure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. The charts and graphs presented do not represent the performance of KCP or any of its advisory clients. Historical performance results for investment indexes and/or categories, generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.  There can be no assurances that a client’s portfolio will match or outperform any particular benchmark. KCP makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by its use and disclaims any liability arising out of your use of, or reliance on, the information. The information is subject to change and, although based on information that KCP considers reliable, it is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. This information may become outdated and KCP is not obligated to update any information or opinions contained herein. Articles herein may not necessarily reflect the investment position or the strategies of KCP. KCP is registered as an investment adviser and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators nor does it indicate that the adviser has attained a particular level of skill or ability.